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BYU +14 -120 BUY ½ (4.5* NCAAF POD) 
Since Riley Nelson took over the offense they have been clicking.  Nelson has 11 TD to just 3 interceptions and 62% and he is a dual threat, probably the best attack TCU’s over rated defense has faced since SMU or Baylor (both losses).  Nelson is a dual threat who can run and prolong plays just watch his comeback vs. Utah State when he was thrown into the mix.  BYU has not had a 3 and out with Nelson on the field and while that will likely change tonight it is an indication that they can stay on the field as they have converted 54% of their third downs on the road this year and 49% overall.
 
TCU on the other hand is 3rd in the league in 3rd down conversion, but BYU is probably the best defense they’ve faced all year long and is holding opponents to 33% conversions on the road this year.  TCU has not played anyone since Baylor, and their loss at home vs. SMU looks worse now since SMU got man handled last week against Southern Miss.  TCU is young still and they are not as good on either side of the ball as years passed whent hey dominated this match up out scoring BYU 101 to 17.  BYU was -7 in turnover margin in those games, but TCU has only forced 13 turnovers this year while BYU has forced 18.  BYU does not get sacked just 6 times all year and Nelson can elude a pass rush and make plays.  TCU has just 14 sacks on the season so I expect BYU to be able to move the ball especially since its running game has been coming around now that they have a back in Mike Alisa who is built like Unga (quality HB a few years ago for BYU) who is averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
 
All in all TCU is a running team and BYU is great at stopping the run and that’s why I like this game.  They have 3 NFL talent LB and a deep defensive line that may not get a pass rush, but they are a rock vs. the run and the best unit TCU has faced all year as they have allowed just 3.04 yards per carry on the road and 2.19 in their last 3.  Ironically BYU’s defense is ranked higher than TCU and BYU has played a more challenging schedule in my opinion or at least they are pretty close I was impressed with their win on the road at Oregon State which got Riley Nelson his experience on the road now he goes into Cowboys Stadium which will be like a home game for TCU, but they won’t quite have the advantage they do playing at home.
 
The most impressive statistic for BYU’s defense is probably their red zone defense and what will keep them in this game.  They’ve allowed 25 possessions in the red zone and only 9 TD’s for 36% TD rate.  BYU is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a dog while TCU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non conference games and their head coach already mentioned he did not like this game in the middle of the season being a non conference game so his mind is clearly else where and not concentrated as much on BYU as years past when the two were in the same conference.  Meanwhile BYU which has more experience wants revenge on the last 3 beat downs by TCU.

Where to find Freddy?